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Halo 5: Guardians Discussion

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@@Sal1ent,

 

You, I, and everyone else can do simple math. We can all see that his math was correct. We can all see that if his conclusion was a magnitude off, then the problem isn't his math, but the numbers he was handed.

 

 

 

I guess I am confused, what was your point?

 

The math was correct, but the numbers used to arrive at ~53k was wrong. You only arrive at that conclusion under the false assumption that every player played 24/7. Now I've been grinding and have put in heaps more hours than all of my crazy Halo fanboy friends, and I'm only averaging 6 hours a day. In fairness, to deduce the number of players that have played the game, most of which play significantly less than 6 hours a day, we should be using an estimated average hours played a week... I used 4 per day, so 28 hours per week. Taking that 9mil and dividing it by 28 yields a much higher player count.

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I dunno, considering how "most played" works, it seems like there would be a lot more than 53,571 at any given time.

I'll leave the math to you, I'm just saying the population can't be that low, even if it's just average and not peak.

 

It just doesn't make sense to me.

Complete opposing for me. My bet is that Halo 5 has 30-40k 

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they literally do no damage to the game, if anything makes sprint more offensive which is a good thing.

All it does is give you another tweed for being out of position most of the time. Some kid comes sprinting around the corner, you fire at him, he rushes you spartan charges you and then kills you in one bullet. Not to mention you can't dodge it at all becauSe it follows you.

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He is saying on average. Maybe at some times it is 200,000, maybe as low as 20,000 at others. 50,000 is purely an average, and in no way indicates unique users or actual concurrent users.

The 50k he came up with is a large portion of the equation. I don't think the accounting of unique users/actual users would make the number drastically more impressive. 

 

The should've just lied and said 200million hours played in first week. They won't show and tell anyway.

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Might have something to do with not wanting people discouraged by the numbers. Like how Halo 3 had 1,000,000+ in the first two weeks and sometimes even after, but because XB1 hasn't sold as well, there's more games on the market that people are sunk into, there's people playing 5 platforms not 3 etc. and it shows -let's say- 500k players people might be like "Lol Halo 3 had more!!!". Well yeah, it did, but the market had less FPS's then and games like League of Legends didn't exist and a host of other reasons.

 

Having said that, that might be a factor into it, but I don't think it's the reason.

Also, after Reach, the 4, and MCC, a lot of people have moved on completely from Halo. By a lot of people, I mean millions. I don't think the average Halo player who hated the 4 is going to even give Halo 5 a chance, especially after the MCC disaster. Halo Reach and even the 4's first week sales rode the coattails of Halo 2/3's popularity. The glory days are long gone and Halo 5 doesn't have anything to ride off of.

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Just stating that concurrency isn't constant. There are peaks and valleys for all tiltes, both daily and weekly. It's only been a week but we're really happy with the numbers so far.

 

Apart from one instance where I saw FIFA 16 ahead, every time I have checked since release, Halo 5 has been the most played game on Xbox Live; so congratulations on your (343i) success there.

 

However, the real test is how Halo 5's population withstands the release of Battlefront and more significantly, Black Ops 3 (as your biggest population loss for Halo 4 coincided with the release of Black Ops 2; and Treyarch have a feature-packed game in Black Ops 3, with a lot of positive buzz online since the beta). Do you have any short term sustain measures to counteract the release of those two games? If not, I would consider releasing an/some easily implemented playlists, like Team Doubles or Team Snipers, and prioritising community-favorite, social modes like Grifball and Infection for your Weekend SOCIAL playlist (which should also be an Arena experience where players aren't ranked, to facilitate a social mindset; there would of course be background skill matchmaking).

 

OK now what I'm about to post is straight conjecture - we can't know the real numbers for this.  That said, I'm still going to just throw out (imaginary) some figures.

 

Let's say 1 in 10 people getting Halo 5 didn't have the Xbone yet, so they buy the bundle.    $399 - or $339 not on a copy

Maybe 1 in 10 felt like getting the Locke or MC controller.                                                       $70 - or $70 not on a copy

Perhaps 1 in 10 bought the limited edition                                                                               $100 - or $40 not on a copy

 

 

So that's 10 copies of the game - $600 and $449 not on the game. that works out to only 57% of sales contributing to a copy of the game.

 

57% of $400,000,000 is $228,000,000.

 

Divide that by $60 to get 3.8million copies.  So by including hardware in the sales numbers and including Limited editions as well then install # will be much lower than 6million.

 

Besides 6million is like 1 out of ever 2 Xbox One owners buying it. Is half your friend list playing? (actually don't answer that, the number is skewed higher for Halo players - but for Destiny or Forza fans it's probably not near that)

 

 

 

AGAIN THIS IS ONLY CONJECTURE TO PROVE A POINT - @Sal1ent OR ANYONE ELSE, NO NEED TO CALL ME ON THE EXACT NUMBERS

 

Obviously, as you say, I can't comment on the actual numbers, as we don't have enough information to work those out; but you're absolutely correct that $400 million in launch week sales doesn't translate directly into game sales, as console bundles and limited editions throw off the price-weighting of each individual sale.

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they literally do no damage to the game, if anything makes sprint more offensive which is a good thing.

 

Have you tried actually using them or being hit by them?

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Ok, here's some more @@CoachMayyne for you.

 

 

What do we know numbers wise... 9million hours played in matchmaking in the first week and we know a week has 168 hours. So how many players had to play concurrently in the week to get that sum?

 

Simple math 9,000,000hrs played/168hrs = 53,571 players on (average) at any given time. This is a fact - they gave us the number and you can't change the number of hours in a week.

 

Take that 53,571 and compare it to the population distribution curve for a FPS (I used CoD numbers from Steam but I imagine the peak times for most FPS are similar - again all I'm using is the distribution curve, not comparing population) and you get a peak population of 102,000 and a low pop. of 20,000

 

So peak 102,000 and low 20,000 - but these are averages for the week. I can't know how many more people played on launch night or compare the weekends to the weekdays. But any higher population those times might have peaked would just drive a lower trough in the down times.

 

 

As for unique users? Can't ever say without more data.

 

 

I chimed in too soon with my previous post. Nah, this makes perfect sense. But without additional data, it's nothing more than a guesstimate.

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All it does is give you another tweed for being out of position most of the time. Some kid comes sprinting around the corner, you fire at him, he rushes you spartan charges you and then kills you in one bullet. Not to mention you can't dodge it at all becauSe it follows you.

you absolutely can dodge it, and you can predict it because you know the other person can use in that exact scenario.
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you absolutely can dodge it, and you can predict it because you know the other person can use in that exact scenario.

Try and dodge it. Most of the time it just lunges at you no matter what you do. The melee range in this game is insanely far away even without spartan charging.

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Try and dodge it. Most of the time it just lunges at you no matter what you do. The melee range in this game is insanely far away even without spartan charging.

dont know what to tell you dude, I've dodged it before, it's not all that challenging of a thing to do.

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they literally do no damage to the game, if anything makes sprint more offensive which is a good thing.

That whole thing about sprinting up to you and Spartan charging as you're shooting them in the face is probably the most annoying thing in the game for me.

 

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What was 343 thinking with spartan charges? They are so stupid.

 

I initially thought I liked it until I realised when someone is charging towards you, you can't do anything about it except kill them (which takes too long). even a thrust to the side isn't enough a lot of the time. I'd like it if when you shot someone they stopped sprinting.

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Who care what the population numbers are?  

 

Sheep will flock to a new game regardless if it's bad or not.

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That whole thing about sprinting up to you and Spartan charging as you're shooting them in the face is probably the most annoying thing in the game for me.

Off-Topic. A friend of mine that doesn't really play Halo posted a pic on facebook matching against you saying "Playing against  Brad Pitt!"

 

Omg you are famous... 

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Thought I joined the Math GD thread on accident (I hope that isn't even a thing) but then I remembered 343 dropped some Halo 5 sales numbers earlier today and now I guess everyone wants to extrapolate based on data that doesn't even exist.

Oh well.

 

I'm just glad the game seems to be doing good.

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I initially thought I liked it until I realised when someone is charging towards you, you can't do anything about it except kill them (which takes too long). even a thrust to the side isn't enough a lot of the time. I'd like it if when you shot someone they stopped sprinting.

 

It's the same shit as when Reach came out and noobs just ran around sprinting to you and would just melee you twice while you shot them.

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It's the same shit as when Reach came out and noobs just ran around sprinting to you and would just melee you twice while you shot them.

 

Ah the classic "double melee" kids. My god I hated them.

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