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CyReN

Halo Championship Series 2018 Teams, Seeds, and Discussion‏

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Wish we could get some throwback h2 tournies while we wait lol.

 

There are online H2 tournaments for Project Cartographer going on right now.  Next one is a draft 4v4 style event.

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This ranking system is difficult. I started the day off low D3, won 8/10 games and finished the day low D3.

 

Yeah..... I have a 64% win percentage, I go on 6-10 game win streaks and dont level up once, loose a game and all my rank I just added is gone, its pretty bad right now.

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Host one and I'll support you. Community online tournaments are great for us. There is an Eldewrito one coming up that should have a decent turn out. We just had a H1 LAN tournament and there is the Beach LAN coming up. Once MCC gets its update the hype increase will spawn a bunch as well.

Also wanted to mention that a few friends & I are attempting to get an Evolved Settings tournament in the works. We're very close to making it official, and we'll have downtime for players to come in and check out our settings via customs before the rosters are built. All of the Classic Halo hype has gotten me giddy, and I'd love to share the Evolved style with people once more.

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This ranking system is difficult. I started the day off low D3, won 8/10 games and finished the day low D3.

It'S whEre YoU'rE suPPoSed tO BE

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Your gameplay fits your Diamond 3 ranking, as do your forum posts. - Menke

 

This was his comment on it

 

It means after Oddball matches, you'll tend to not go up. Non-Oddball you might bounce depending on performance variation, but the last 2-3 games in each game mode (there's a separate MMR each) are pretty flat. Meaning you've been consistent, but at the same performance.

 

So I've been consistent and winning, shouldn't that mean I should definitely be moving up? I've no idea how this works.

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This was his comment on it

 

It means after Oddball matches, you'll tend to not go up. Non-Oddball you might bounce depending on performance variation, but the last 2-3 games in each game mode (there's a separate MMR each) are pretty flat. Meaning you've been consistent, but at the same performance.

 

So I've been consistent and winning, shouldn't that mean I should definitely be moving up? I've no idea how this works.

Everyone forgets to take their opponent's (hidden) MMR into account. Who you play is a big factor on that happens to your rank after a match.

 

That, and the game has been out for almost 3 years. A good ranking system will weigh career performance higher than recent performances, to increase the signal-to-noise ratio and ignore local, possibly random variation.

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All the "Space Force" videos rocking the Halo 3 guitar song are priceless, my god my sides

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 So I've been consistent and winning, shouldn't that mean I should definitely be moving up? I've no idea how this works.

My interpretation of it is that it depends on who you play. If you're beating people the system expects you to beat, then you aren't going move up very much. It might go up more if you play beyond the system's expectations of you (more than consistent) or you play tougher opponents and win. On the other side, if you lose to people when the system expects that you would lose, but you play better than the system expected, your MMR can go up despite your CSR moving down and you'll get a bigger CSR gain on your next win when appropriate.

 

We should also keep in mind that the inflation issue is affecting a lot of people this season so you might only get +1/-15 gains/losses until your CSR and MMR are in sync. I think it should be resolved once they reset the ranks sometime next week.

 

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The problem with the current ranking system is that while it may be an accurate representation of skill (I don't actually know if that is true past Menke saying it is, and honestly don't believe that it is), winning 6-8/10 games and not moving ranks at all is not a rewarding game experience and does not actually make anyone a better player. Eventually you have to play against better players to raise your level, and the current system is broken in that it doesn't allow that and is currently matching completely fucked up teams with massive gaps in skill level.

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The problem with the current ranking system is that while it may be an accurate representation of skill (I don't actually know if that is true past Menke saying it is, and honestly don't believe that it is), winning 6-8/10 games and not moving ranks at all is not a rewarding game experience and does not actually make anyone a better player. Eventually you have to play against better players to raise your level, and the current system is broken in that it doesn't allow that and is currently matching completely fucked up teams with massive gaps in skill level.

If you’re at a diamond level or above, there are just not enough people to match you up with.

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The problem with the current ranking system is that while it may be an accurate representation of skill (I don't actually know if that is true past Menke saying it is, and honestly don't believe that it is), winning 6-8/10 games and not moving ranks at all is not a rewarding game experience and does not actually make anyone a better player. Eventually you have to play against better players to raise your level, and the current system is broken in that it doesn't allow that and is currently matching completely fucked up teams with massive gaps in skill level.

Yep. I don't care how perfect the math is behind this ranking system if it just completely ignores why players play ranked games and what they actually want from a ranking system. There needs to be a sense of reward.

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Yep. I don't care how perfect the math is behind this ranking system if it just completely ignores why players play ranked games and what they actually want from a ranking system. There needs to be a sense of reward.

 

Even if the MM system was broken, you literally and mathematically can't do much with low population and an old game. 

 

The notion of "rewards" from matchmaking performance can only be realizable if two conditions are true: 

 

1. The matches you play are fair. 

2. You can indefinitely continue improving noticeable amounts. 

 

I don't think these are true today in Halo 5.

 

1. Low population

 

If the matches are fair from a ranking perspective, then continuing to win against opponents that the ranking system thought you were equal with indicates that you are actually better than the ranking system predicted, and you should be rewarded by seeing your rank increase. Vice versa, if you lose, that means you're not as good and should be punished. 

 

However, if there is not enough of a population to consistently get a lobby full of 8 equally talented players, what the ranking system must do with the results becomes less clear (ignoring the case where a team of 4 bad players consistently beats a team of 4 good players, in which case the ranking system should correctly reward the bad players and punish the good players). Take a lobby full of 8 solo players: 4 are "good" and 4 are "bad," so you split them into two teams that have 2 good and bad players each. They play each other and, ignoring draws, one team wins. Now, without looking at individual performance, what does this mean? Does everyone on the winning team deserve to be rewarded? The bad players on either team are worse than the average MMR of either team, so if they happen to be on the winning team, then they technically participated in a game with better players and won. On the other hand, this usually requires the good players to carry, which, other than being annoying, might have more match-to-match variation in terms of carrying ability. If they play well, but their bad teammates really anchor and cause them to lose, they'll be punished, and probably unfairly. 

 

When the population of available players is small, you'll struggle to put together fair lobbies. You might be able to put together two teams with close enough average MMR between them, but you'll see great variation within the teams in terms of skill and responsibility for success. The idea of one team being rewarded and the other being punished in this case is not very meaningful, although I will admit taking factors other than just W/L into account may alleviate some of the issues.

 

2. Skill stagnation

 

For the second point, I don't think the average player in matchmaking is capable of continued improvement. At some point, player skill probably plateaus. There will be some cases of people continuing to improve longer than others, but there will probably be even more cases of players stagnating and/or devolving. But let's assume that after two and a half years of grinding, the average Halo 5 player has reached their skill ceiling. There will be game to game and day to day variation, of course, but no significant changes to their mean performance. 

 

At this point, I don't see how rewards or punishments after any single game mean anything at all. If I win 50% of the matches I play against a lobby full of players equally as skilled as me, then there is no need to give me a reward when I win or a punishment when I lose. I might win a few games in a row, but over the next 100 games, I'll probably regress back to the mean. Now, if I start winning 60% of the matches against those players, then clearly they're not equally skilled, so I will be rewarded with an increase in rank, and, hopefully, I'll once again start playing players equally as skilled as me. What I'm getting at here is that rewards/punishments are only necessary/meaningful when you are noticeably changing in skill level. Once you stop improving, then any further rewards will just lead to rank inflation, which, admittedly, might still be happening today. 

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Online play/2Ks start this weekend.

Not sure how I feel about the timing...

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Finals/semis of some of the 2k tournaments are played live in studio, that's super cool.

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All the "Space Force" videos rocking the Halo 3 guitar song are priceless, my god my sides

 

You can't just say how good a meme is without linking it.

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Also wanted to mention that a few friends & I are attempting to get an Evolved Settings tournament in the works. We're very close to making it official, and we'll have downtime for players to come in and check out our settings via customs before the rosters are built. All of the Classic Halo hype has gotten me giddy, and I'd love to share the Evolved style with people once more.

 

I'm blanking. Evolved settings is BR start with no abilities?

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