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HCS Pro League Summer 2016 Teams, Seeds, and Discussion‏

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I definitely don't agree with doing what they did. We agreed to try to scrim today instead of Frosty doing the 2v2. Common sense should have been able to figure this out. 

This.

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As much as I hate the awkwardness and disrespect-fullness of it, somebody should combine the "Shut the fuck up" with EG saying they were specifically going to work on not raging last night (as well as Snipedown saying "I'm a rager") or something like that  :simms:

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(special thanks to halo5arena.com for providing the data for this post)

 

Spend a week in the Halo community and you'll learn that stats are controversial. Perhaps you've heard a forum poster, or a match caster say something like “stats don't matter”. But if you've played Halo, you've probably also had a thought along the lines of “man, we would have won if my teammate didn't drop a neg bomb”.

 

Usually these arguments tend to hit the extremes. Stats matter, but they aren't the only thing that matters. You can even win games while being outslayed!

 

Today I'd like to take a first step in exploring the concept of objective efficiency. I have so many questions! At the pro level, how often does the team with more kills win an objective game? Does it vary by team? Which teams have performed the worst while outslaying their opponents?

 

Let's make a graph.

 

ciJU1AN.png

 

Each point represents a single game for a team. Slayer games are not plotted.

 

On the x-axis we have the team's overall kd. If your team had 50 kills and 40 deaths, you have a team kd of 1.25. On the y-axis, we have the percentage of objective points your team earned. Win a flag game 3-1, and you have 75% of the objective points (3 out of 4 captures).

 

In total, there have been 53 objective games where one team out-slayed another team, and of those, the team with more kills won 47 times. 89%. Round it to 90, whatever.

 

The other 6 games? Those are in the lower-right corner of the graph. The most severe instance of a team getting beaten despite outslaying their opponents was in last week's Truth CTF game between Evil Geniuses and Envyus. EG had a whopping 25% edge in kills (60 to 48), but lost the game 3 – 1. Snipedown went 23 – 11! But if you watch the replay, it's a trainwreck. EG also lost two objective games when posting an even kd of 1.0.

 

The biggest repeat offender is Team Liquid. They've lost 3 objective games despite slaying superiority, and another game to Optic where the kills were equal.

 

On the other side of the coin (the top-left corner), Envyus have taken two games while being outslayed (against EG and Allegiance). They've also had the most games where they've taken 100% of the objective points. Envyus' objective win-rate is topped only by CLG.

 

Thanks for reading!

Mid page

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Yeah I dont know why all of the MOTW's are geared towards EG. nV vs RNG was the best match of week 2, not EG vs CLG. Everyone knew this before the match.

Week 1: No MOTW from what I can remember & look after.

Week 2: CLG vs EG

Week 3: CLG vs E6

Week 4: CLG vs nV & EG vs nV.

 

c'mon, it's not geared towards EG(or nV for that matter, seeing as they both have 2 MOTW). The MOTW is geared towards CLG(most likely because CLG losing would be a MOTW, we all know CLG won't lose though, but imagine if they lost and HCS didn't say it was a MOTW?). The biggest(closest) matchups this week are imo; EG vs RNG, EG vs nV, ALG vs TL & Optic vs TL.

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If you're a Congressman and no bills pass, are you really a Congressman?

 

That's some shit logic, man.

 

 

Liquid is underperforming, and I am inviting being memed here, but that's just an ignorant question.

i was joking  :kappa:

 

but i agree, you are just like one of those lame duck congressman

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Oops, I bottom of paged all my hard work. :mj:

Don't worry I actively seek out your charts...

 

Danker (?) than most memes these days

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c'mon, it's not geared towards EG(or nV for that matter, seeing as they both have 2 MOTW). The MOTW is geared towards CLG(most likely because CLG losing would be a MOTW, we all know CLG won't lose though, but imagine if they lost and HCS didn't say it was a MOTW?)

That shouldn't be how "Matches of the week" should work. That's like other sports only featuring the reigning champs. MOTW should be grudge matches and teams that have a good story. May as well change the name to Contender Match. It wouldn't be the end of the world if they didn't call it the MOTW and CLG loses. They will commentate regardless (if the don't miss it :simms:)

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That shouldn't be how "Matches of the week" should work. That's like other sports only featuring the reigning champs. MOTW should be grudge matches and teams have a good story. May as well change the name to Contender Match. It wouldn't be the end of the world if they didn't call it the MOTW and CLG loses. They will commentate regardless (if the don't miss it :simms:)

I know, but I bet that's what they're thinking when choosing the MOTW's.

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(special thanks to halo5arena.com for providing the data for this post)

 

Spend a week in the Halo community and you'll learn that stats are controversial. Perhaps you've heard a forum poster, or a match caster say something like “stats don't matter”. But if you've played Halo, you've probably also had a thought along the lines of “man, we would have won if my teammate didn't drop a neg bomb”.

 

Usually these arguments tend to hit the extremes. Stats matter, but they aren't the only thing that matters. You can even win games while being outslayed!

 

Today I'd like to take a first step in exploring the concept of objective efficiency. I have so many questions! At the pro level, how often does the team with more kills win an objective game? Does it vary by team? Which teams have performed the worst while outslaying their opponents?

 

Let's make a graph.

 

ciJU1AN.png

 

Each point represents a single game for a team. Slayer games are not plotted.

 

On the x-axis we have the team's overall kd. If your team had 50 kills and 40 deaths, you have a team kd of 1.25. On the y-axis, we have the percentage of objective points your team earned. Win a flag game 3-1, and you have 75% of the objective points (3 out of 4 captures).

 

In total, there have been 53 objective games where one team out-slayed another team, and of those, the team with more kills won 47 times. 89%. Round it to 90, whatever.

 

The other 6 games? Those are in the lower-right corner of the graph. The most severe instance of a team getting beaten despite outslaying their opponents was in last week's Truth CTF game between Evil Geniuses and Envyus. EG had a whopping 25% edge in kills (60 to 48), but lost the game 3 – 1. Snipedown went 23 – 11! But if you watch the replay, it's a trainwreck. EG also lost two objective games when posting an even kd of 1.0.

 

The biggest repeat offender is Team Liquid. They've lost 3 objective games despite slaying superiority, and another game to Optic where the kills were equal.

 

On the other side of the coin (the top-left corner), Envyus have taken two games while being outslayed (against EG and Allegiance). They've also had the most games where they've taken 100% of the objective points. Envyus' objective win-rate is topped only by CLG.

 

Thanks for reading!

This is quality stuff. If 343 hurries they can tape someone reading this post in front of the graph blown up and mix it in between the ubernick montages tonight when we have downtime bewteen games.
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This is quality stuff. If 343 hurries they can tape someone reading this post in front of the graph blown up and mix it in between the ubernick montages tonight when we have downtime bewteen games.

To be honest, part of my hope when making these is that it makes it easier for the casters to make informed commentary about the different teams and players. Back in the day I would sometimes slip notes to Puckett in the commentary booth, to highlight interesting facts or trends. 

 

So much of selling sports (e or otherwise) is building up reputations for your players, so that you can craft story lines around that. Numerical analyses are one such angle. 

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Week 1: No MOTW from what I can remember & look after.

Week 2: CLG vs EG

Week 3: CLG vs E6

Week 4: CLG vs nV & EG vs nV.

 

c'mon, it's not geared towards EG(or nV for that matter, seeing as they both have 2 MOTW). The MOTW is geared towards CLG(most likely because CLG losing would be a MOTW, we all know CLG won't lose though, but imagine if they lost and HCS didn't say it was a MOTW?). The biggest(closest) matchups this week are imo; EG vs RNG, EG vs nV, ALG vs TL & Optic vs TL.

 

Yes but seeing how under-performing EG are at the monment I wouldnt even give them one MOTW. No one is excited to see them play anymore.

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a couple non-meme thoughts:

 

Audley is an analyst. If his team is trash, he is still an analyst. Perhaps he is a bad analyst, but given that we know nothing about the type of analysis he is providing, it's unwise to make that judgement based on performance that he may or may not have anything to do with. Maybe Liquid would be even worse without his help? Who knows? Nonetheless, Audley = analyst.

 

Chad is a statistician. Regardless of your extremely important and distinguished opinion on whether or not the nature of what he does is advanced enough for your personal definition of a statistician's duties, he literally carries the title of Statistician and generally does the work of a statistician. Therefore, Chad is a statistician. Wild, I know.

 

Practice for pro league is more important than a monthly 2v2 tournament. Just for the record, literally no one argued against this point. Yet some of you armed up your shitposts heavier than ever before to defeat this mighty Straw Man.

 

It's garbage behavior to sign up for a tournament knowing you will quit. This is as simple as it gets. I don't even know how or why anyone would explain this in any further depth. It's disrespectful to the organizers and bad for the community.

 

Love this place so much, but sometimes man...

 

tumblr_inline_nm0btjEXxI1rgu8or.gif

+rep for Avon Barksdale

 

Oh yeah you made some good points too  :lxthul:

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Yes but seeing how under-performing EG are at the monment I wouldnt even give them one MOTW. No one is excited to see them play anymore.

So, in the end, it was never their bias, it was all yours.  :apg:

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Yes but seeing how under-performing EG are at the monment I wouldnt even give them one MOTW. No one is excited to see them play anymore.

Actually I think that match-up is exciting... Especially as EG continues to get more practice in, and settling into their new place. Looking at the weekly matches those are the most "interesting" matches of the week. As much as people rag on EG for a multitude of valid reasons, they're still the last team to really beat CLG so they've got that factor. 

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As much as people rag on EG for a multitude of valid reasons, they're still the last team to really beat CLG so they've got that factor.

Team bias aside I think the EG vs RNG would be a better matchup this week. X Games is hardly relevant to now.

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Actually I think that match-up is exciting... Especially as EG continues to get more practice in, and settling into their new place. Looking at the weekly matches those are the most "interesting" matches of the week. As much as people rag on EG for a multitude of valid reasons, they're still the last team to really beat CLG so they've got that factor. 

I agree that the EG/nV matchup is the best matchup on Friday, but I wouldn't be surprised if nV 3-0s them again. The root of EG's problem, in my opionion, is lack of consistent practice and team cohesion. Sure, they've been practicing more this week, but it really seems like their cohesion as a team hasn't gotten better at all. nV have shown that even though they might not be the best team during scrims, they show up when the pro league matches start. EG have only really shown up against the bottom 3 teams. I think this next round robin and upcoming weeks of scrims will be very important for EG if they want to make a good showing at finals.

 

As for EG being that last team that beat CLG, that was almost 5 months ago and CLG have obviously gotten considerably better while EG has been steadily declining. I think most people here would say that RNG, nV, and e6 are all more likely to put up a better fight against CLG than EG would.

 

Also, in no way am I trying to rag on EG. I've been a huge fan of snip3down, roy, and lunch for years now. I would love to see them climb back to the top and take CLG to another game 7 at finals.

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(special thanks to halo5arena.com for providing the data for this post)

 

Loving the work you're doing with graphs.  You should consider pitching to external outlets as a freelancer and getting paid for it.  This is good content.

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