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HCS Pro League Summer 2016 Teams, Seeds, and Discussion‏

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Just when I think I understand H5 pro league and how all the teams stack up against each other I watch EU and see teams 3-0 one team only to get 3-0'd by a team that got 3-0'd by the first and realize I know nothing

Further proof that the "transitive property" doesn't apply in sports. Just because Team A beat Team B doesn't make Team A better than Team C because they lost to Team A. It's all about how Teams match up against other teams. 

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1. u4x

2-5. everyone else

6. pulse

Yeah but dat Pulse sweep over Infused though...  :kappa:

 

 

sorry Batch :(

 

 

My rankings:

 

U4X

Xmen

Infused

Dinos

and I can't decide between vibe and pulse for last two

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o and one more thing, when i said it can be very obvious when you are playing with a lower onyx player, one thing is their decision making, but another dead give away is usually their communication.  like those 1500-1600 players for some reason have very bad and toxic communication.

 

Yeah, I've noticed the same thing. It's like being a low onyx is some cause for an ego, lol. This is probably the wrong thread for this, but since it's already being talked about...

 

One thing I've noticed, but haven't gathered any numerical proof of, is that you lose less csr for a loss than you gain for a win. I've solo'd nearly every game, and went from diamond 1 to onyx ~1670 over around 150 games...with a ~48% win percentage. And this seems to hold true regardless of player ranks in the matches. Makes me think that climbing is still possible even if you're losing the majority of your games, which may lead to poorly skilled low onyxes, and I'm implicating myself in this, too.

 

I don't think k/d and kda are part of it either, it seems to be an arbitrary set value of -10ish csr for loss and +14ish for a win for everyone in the game.

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People are overreacting to OG IMO. Yes, missing vetos is insanely irresponsible but saying Hecz needs to scrap the team?

 

I don’t think the team should be scrapped, but they do need a good kick up the arse.

 

When Naded joined I really thought he would become the lynchpin of the team - say what you like about his up/down mood swings but the lad has got talent by the bucket load, and puts a superhuman amount of work into the grind. Then, when Flamesword retired to the Coach position, I thought this’ll be the start of something really good - an iconic figure as Coach, a strong anchor like Naded and open slot on the team to attract a decent 4th. And then wheels fell off.

 

(for sure, Str8 and APG are both great additions to what could be a strong roster but there’s a lack of... discipline? responsibility? within the squad which, as a fan, is really disheartening.)

 

It’s not just the players though - look at the Optic Halo team page on optic.tv. It still shows Naded and Flamesword on the roster; from there, follow the link to the official Optic Halo Twitter page… no updates since Jan 14th. There’s a top-to-bottom lack of attention to detail which adds to the  “we’re not taking this Halo lark terribly seriously” vibe.

 

The sad thing is, it’s not as if they’re not racking-up the game time. If I’m reading these numbers correctly, they’ve played more games than any other team in the last fortnight...  but...  they’ve lost most of ‘em.

 

I’m all for the “work hard/play hard” ethos, but if you’re playing hard (as most of the team have done this week), working hard but not getting good results, then something needs to change.

 

Until they start posting some consistent wins, there needs to be less focus on content creation and living the lifestyle, and more focus on analysis, practice and strategising. The talent is there in the team, for sure, they just need a “Mary Poppins” character to make them realise it.

 

Anyway, after lurking for so long, I’m sorry my first post here is a bit ranty but sometimes, being an Optic Halo fan is like

http://i.imgur.com/sYWdFtp.gifv

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AobMeoH.jpg

 

Earlier somebody mentioned Ninja's damage per minute. I pulled the stats from Halo 5 arena and made this plot.

 

I've plotted as grey lines the average Damage per Minute and average Damage per Death in the Pro League. Then there's a fitted line with the linear relationship between these two variables.

 

In the abstract, “better” players fall to the top-right corner of the graph. What's interesting is where players fall above or below the diagonal dotted line. Ninja, for example, has dmg/death that is just above average, but is an outlier when it comes to damage per minute. This tells you a lot about his playstyle. Ninja plays fast. He engages quickly, dispenses damage quickly, dies, and does it all over again.

 

This is pretty much the opposite of how Royal 2 plays. Royal 2 is great at staying alive, and gets an absurd amount of value out of every death. Interestingly, he doesn't even lead the team in damage per minute. That's Snakebite, who plays at a very “average” speed relative to his dmg/death by pro league standards (as evidenced by the fact that he falls right on the fitted line).

 

Of note, on the high end, there's pretty much a straight line between Royal 2, Huke, Mikwen and Ninja. These players are all unloading tons of damage, but there are some stylistic differences between them. I will say, the fact that Huke can put out so much damage from Enigma6 (who currently stand 2-3 in the league) is rather absurd.

 

 

On the other side of the spectrum, Goofy and Assault have struggled. Goofy has an exceptionally low dmg/minute compared to his teammates (who are all above average in that department). Interestingly, eL ToWn is rather low in terms of damage per minute.

 

Let's wrap up with Liquid and Optic. If you look at the 4 non-Assault Liquid players (including Danoxide), they seem to collectively be very average, but Assault appears to be a weak link. All 4 Optic players are below average in terms of damage per death, and even though Maniac isn't doing well, there's nobody on the team really stepping up and outputting great numbers. 

Love the metric. Love the analysis you put out. 

 

I think it's great to see just how selfless most players are. 

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its funny that this is true.  even at onyx-champ there are so many skill levels.  like a 1500-1600 isn't good in my head, and like a low champ is pretty good, etc etc.  like even when you are "good" at the game, you still arent even close to as good as you can be.  and its not like people in onyx are even close to eachother.  playing with a lower ranked onyx vs a higher onyx/champion can be a night and day difference.  like incredibly noticeable. and thats just in the top percentage

I agree. But to be fair according to Halo Tracker, just being in Onyx in Team Arena means you are top 4% so they are all above average.  I think sometimes we forget that because of the nature of Team Beyond.

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Can some statician out there do an in depth analysis on liquid so I can make sense of how on earth they are below optic

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Yeah but dat Pulse sweep over Infused though...  :kappa:

 

 

sorry Batch :(

 

 

My rankings:

 

U4X

Xmen

Infused

Dinos

and I can't decide between vibe and pulse for last two

U4X 

XMEN

INF

Dinos

Vibe

Pulse. 

Right now even though everyone is beating everyone (due to less teams) its still easy to say who is who. Wish the EU scene was bigger. Thanks for doing this! ;) 

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If people are into it, I'll try to do more statistical analyses and previews. I kind of miss being a more active part of the Halo community. If anybody wants to host the content (Team Beyond, halo5arena, halowaypoint, w/e) let me know. 

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As a lower ranked onyx myself, I think there's actually more consistency in the skill of mid-high diamond players that I match with. Onyx 1500-1600 could be the most oblivious people in the game, or they could be decent. High diamonds always seem to make better decisions. I don't know why that is, and maybe I'm actually the oblivious one in game, but it makes searching solo infuriating when ranks are a crapshoot.

Speaking as a Low-Onyx Team Arena player I feel like the huge difference comes in consistency. There are periods of time when I'm playing extremely well and making the good decisions consistently whereas other times I'm shitting the bed and playing like a low diamond. Although this could just be my personal issue.

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Yeah but dat Pulse sweep over Infused though...  :kappa:

 

 

sorry Batch :(

 

 

My rankings:

 

U4X

Xmen

Infused

Dinos

and I can't decide between vibe and pulse for last two

Pulse Top 1 World

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I ran the numbers, and I found a pretty convincing case:

 

X40AXCT.png

watch out chad, you might be looking for a job soon

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Very happy Pulse took a game off U4x, at least we know it's possible now.

 

Even better, I called pulse taking a game in twitch chat and they laughed at me

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Very happy Pulse took a game off U4x, at least we know it's possible now.

 

Even better, I called pulse taking a game in twitch chat and they laughed at me

What is happening lmao.

 

Pulse manage to beat Infused and take a game off of U4X, after having no wins until Week 3, Day 1.

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What is happening lmao.

 

Pulse manage to beat Infused and take a game off of U4X, after have no wins until Week 3, Day 1.

Maybe UnderratedSolar was actually Overrated after all

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What is happening lmao.

 

Pulse manage to beat Infused and take a game off of U4X, after have no wins until Week 3, Day 1.

Well the Pulse that took a game off U4X only has half the roster that went winless in the first two weeks.

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o and one more thing, when i said it can be very obvious when you are playing with a lower onyx player, one thing is their decision making, but another dead give away is usually their communication.  like those 1500-1600 players for some reason have very bad and toxic communication.

 

I solo q'd Onyx 1700 this season so far and one thing I've noticed is that my callouts depend on the team I'm playing with. If my team are the "One shot" crew, then I don't try to small talk because they only respond to that one specific callout. When I play 8s with the Git Gud discord, I'm more prone to communicate and use small talk because the players will be doing so already and trying to coordinate pushes. 

 

Toxic communication is a thing you see everywhere though... even outside of low Onyx. I used to complain mid match about the BR and stuff or the guy sitting back with the sniper but I don't blame the game anymore, I just try to work around it.

 

I'm still, and probably always will be, an awful competitive player since I always try to play my way and not the way that is most optimal. So in a sense, I'm not really competitive but I appreciate close matches and holding my L's. Still think I do pretty well for myself.

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Onyx players are an outlier within the overall Halo community and are considerably more skilled than the average player. 

i'm Onyx and I respectfully disagree. I'm trash

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Good analysis from everyone so far.

 

I created another plot that I think tells an interesting story. In this bar chart, I'm showing damage per minute _alive_, which is to say that I calculated the total time all of their games lasted together, then subtracted (total deaths * 8 seconds) to get the amount of time that player was actually in the game, not looking at a death screen.

 

n7TZ8jL.png

 

 

Onnne of these things is not like the othherrrs, one of them doesn't belong..

 

This is an interesting measurement of how much damage output each player is able to produce while they're alive, but it definitely has some quirks. Notice Royal 2 just behind Eco, e.g.

 

Still, I think the distribution is starting to confirm the intuition you have when watching players like Ninja, Contra or Snipedown: they're managing to put a lot of bullets on faces given the time they spend alive. If you look at the stats for Strongholds this season, you'll see RNG is crushing. One theory I'd like to put forward is that Ninja's bullet hose style is well-suited for gametypes like Strongholds where your teammates' attention is naturally directed towards specific parts of the map. In other words, when there's incentives for players to crowd around certain areas, it's more likely that all damage is useful damage. Contrast that with a slayer, where damage is nigh useless if it's not immediately converted to a kill. That's the arena where Royal 2's anomalous ability to post huge K/D's makes the difference.

 

EDIT:

 

Here's total deaths broken down by player:

 

ta4u3LN.png

 

Here we can see the Ninja - Royal 2 spectrum most clearly. They are literally the most and least deaths in the league, respectively. This gives some insight into how Royal 2's KD is so good. It's not because he has a ridiculous number of kills - it's because he has ridiculously few deaths. You'd be tempted to call this playstyle selfish if it weren't so obviously effective.

 

One thing I think CLG has demonstrated is that all of the strategy in the world won't get you anywhere if the other team has all 4 alive. You'll notice that CLG places more emphasis on power weapons than other teams. One might be tempted to think that this is to try and get more slays, but it almost seems as if the more important effect is fewer deaths. Power weapons decrease the average damage the weapon-holder takes in a 1v1. Watch Frosty with railgun or Royal 2 with sniper to see how many kills they score without taking any return damage.

3 of the top 5 for deaths/minute are OpTic players... Damn

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