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LETHUL LEAVES EG, Reaction Video

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I doubt TJ actually thought he was the best on the team. How could he when it's so blatantly obvious that Lunchbox is the best player in the game?

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He was always a bit of a black sheep on the team in both skill and maturity.

 

Here's to hoping CLG applies for residency in Choke City.

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I totally get why Snipedown is pissed and I think he has some valid points here.

 

On the other hand, the pure mathematics of TJ's decision make a lot of sense. Let's say that you have three or four teams that are all approximately equal in terms of performance/ability, with some amount of that ability coming from each individual on the team. So for a CLG vs EG comparison maybe we have this:

 

CLG (355):

Royal 2  - 95

Snakebite - 95

Frosty - 90

Ogre 2 - 75

 

 

EG (355):

Snipedown - 90

Roy - 85

Lunchbox - 85

Lethul - 95

 

 

If we assume something like these numbers above is true, then when TJ replaces Ogre 2 he is likely making the biggest one-time improvement for a Top 4 team possible (CLG is now 375). At the same time he is making EG significantly worse. If we suggest that the top 5 best players in Halo are all either on CLG or EG, then there is no possible choice of player outside that team which will be an improvement over the old EG roster (EG at best goes down to 345).

 

So hypothetically, TJ has taken 4 contending teams, made one of the four significantly weaker (now 3 contending teams), while making his team the overall favorite.

 

In online poker when you get to the final table of a tournament, you can elect to stop playing and split the prize money based (approximately) on your current share of the chip count (a basic predictor of probability of a win). What TJ has done is put himself in a position where you have to consider his new team to have the most overall chips at the final table (i.e. most probable to win). In other words, his expected value of future winnings has gone up.

 

If you are in business, poker, or Halo you take the larger EV play 10 times out of 10.

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If you are in business, poker, or Halo you take the larger EV play 10 times out of 10.

 

 

I see your point, but the problem is that (1) the players on CLG are not necessarily better than the players on EG, (2) Lethul may also be weakening his own chances because he has no idea what the team chemistry on CLG will be like, and (3) arguably the best team at the table, Allegiance, is only strengthened by this move.  All Lethul may have done is weaken the #2, #3, and #4 teams.  It was at best barely an EV+ decision

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You can see the hurt in his eyes. That move could potentially have separated him from a few hundred thousand in winnings.

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EG will be fine. This kick in the ass will motivate them like nothing else, and I have faith in Commonly.

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I totally get why Snipedown is pissed and I think he has some valid points here.

 

On the other hand, the pure mathematics of TJ's decision make a lot of sense. Let's say that you have three or four teams that are all approximately equal in terms of performance/ability, with some amount of that ability coming from each individual on the team. So for a CLG vs EG comparison maybe we have this:

 

CLG (355):

Royal 2  - 95

Snakebite - 95

Frosty - 90

Ogre 2 - 75

 

 

EG (355):

Snipedown - 90

Roy - 85

Lunchbox - 85

Lethul - 95

 

What Universe are you in where Ogre 2, who has won more tournaments than most people have entered, is a C level player and Roy/Lunch, one of the best duos in Halo are B level players?

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What Universe are you in where Ogre 2, who has won more tournaments than most people have entered, is a C level player and Roy/Lunch, one of the best duos in Halo are B level players?

2Gre is a C level player, Roy/Lunch are not same skill though.

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2Gre is a C level player, Roy/Lunch are not same skill though.

 

The level of play must be going down really fast, considering a C level player almost took the last major Halo tournament.

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The level of play must be going down really fast, considering a C level player almost took the last major Halo tournament.

3 A's didn't win the last major Halo tournament because they were hindered by a C.

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3 A's didn't win the last major Halo tournament because they were hindered by a C.

 

3 A's and a C shouldn't even make it to the finals.

 

Frosty replaced Cloud, so that would make Cloud a lesser player, putting him at an 85 at the very most.

 

That would make CLG a B/B+ team.

 

If a B+ team is making the finals, something is wrong.

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Video handled the situation pretty well I think. Was an honest take on the situation without getting overly emotional and going too far, definitely one of the more professional VLOGs I've seen in situations like this. Definitely interested to see how this shakes things up.

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I feel like they offered lethul more money, because hes not saying why he decided to leave and usually that has to do with contracts money.

He took more guaranteed money and realized that he still has an incredible chance of winning HWC.

I hate to see him leave the dynasty, and I know hes used to the trolling but maybe that "you only get to win because youre with roy/lunch/snipe gets to him when hes won events before.

Either way I hope it works out well for every team.

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Thanks for the video! Definitely sheds more light on the situation.

 

I hope everything works out!

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I feel like they offered lethul more money, because hes not saying why he decided to leave and usually that has to do with contracts money.

 

He took more guaranteed money and realized that he still has an incredible chance of winning HWC.

 

I hate to see him leave the dynasty, and I know hes used to the trolling but maybe that "you only get to win because youre with roy/lunch/snipe gets to him when hes won events before.

 

Either way I hope it works out well for every team.

How many events has he won without them? 1?

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I totally get why Snipedown is pissed and I think he has some valid points here.

 

On the other hand, the pure mathematics of TJ's decision make a lot of sense. Let's say that you have three or four teams that are all approximately equal in terms of performance/ability, with some amount of that ability coming from each individual on the team. So for a CLG vs EG comparison maybe we have this:

 

CLG (355):

Royal 2 - 95

Snakebite - 95

Frosty - 90

Ogre 2 - 75

 

 

EG (355):

Snipedown - 90

Roy - 85

Lunchbox - 85

Lethul - 95

 

 

If we assume something like these numbers above is true, then when TJ replaces Ogre 2 he is likely making the biggest one-time improvement for a Top 4 team possible (CLG is now 375). At the same time he is making EG significantly worse. If we suggest that the top 5 best players in Halo are all either on CLG or EG, then there is no possible choice of player outside that team which will be an improvement over the old EG roster (EG at best goes down to 345).

 

So hypothetically, TJ has taken 4 contending teams, made one of the four significantly weaker (now 3 contending teams), while making his team the overall favorite.

 

In online poker when you get to the final table of a tournament, you can elect to stop playing and split the prize money based (approximately) on your current share of the chip count (a basic predictor of probability of a win). What TJ has done is put himself in a position where you have to consider his new team to have the most overall chips at the final table (i.e. most probable to win). In other words, his expected value of future winnings has gone up.

 

If you are in business, poker, or Halo you take the larger EV play 10 times out of 10.

Whoever put Royal 2 and snakebite over snipedown and Roy and ogre 2 at a 75 for numbers is delusional as fuck, but w/e.

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I totally get why Snipedown is pissed and I think he has some valid points here.

 

On the other hand, the pure mathematics of TJ's decision make a lot of sense. Let's say that you have three or four teams that are all approximately equal in terms of performance/ability, with some amount of that ability coming from each individual on the team. So for a CLG vs EG comparison maybe we have this:

 

CLG (355):

Royal 2 - 95

Snakebite - 95

Frosty - 90

Ogre 2 - 75

 

 

EG (355):

Snipedown - 90

Roy - 85

Lunchbox - 85

Lethul - 95

 

 

If we assume something like these numbers above is true, then when TJ replaces Ogre 2 he is likely making the biggest one-time improvement for a Top 4 team possible (CLG is now 375). At the same time he is making EG significantly worse. If we suggest that the top 5 best players in Halo are all either on CLG or EG, then there is no possible choice of player outside that team which will be an improvement over the old EG roster (EG at best goes down to 345).

 

So hypothetically, TJ has taken 4 contending teams, made one of the four significantly weaker (now 3 contending teams), while making his team the overall favorite.

 

In online poker when you get to the final table of a tournament, you can elect to stop playing and split the prize money based (approximately) on your current share of the chip count (a basic predictor of probability of a win). What TJ has done is put himself in a position where you have to consider his new team to have the most overall chips at the final table (i.e. most probable to win). In other words, his expected value of future winnings has gone up.

 

If you are in business, poker, or Halo you take the larger EV play 10 times out of 10.

Now this is analysis.
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